Spain's olive oil harvest season 2024/2025: expectations end of October 2024

The olive harvest season has started all over Spain. At Señorios de Relleu on the coast near Alicante they have been picking for a while and since this week they have also started the harvest in the Spanish interior.

This was a good moment to check with my suppliers, the Spanish media and informally through my family to understand what the expectations are for the coming harvest. After having been in Spain a bit more, I noticed that it has rained. After two bad harvests in the olive oil sector in Spain. Spain is on the eve of a promising harvest. This is good news for the entire supply chain, from farmers to olive oil loving consumers.

Outlook for the Spanish olive harvest

According to market experts, Spain is expected to produce between 1.4 and 1.45 million tonnes of olive oil olive oil This is a small adjustment from his previous estimate of 1.65 million tonnes, but still a big improvement over recent years.

The winter season has played an important role in this positive outlook. Thanks to a wet winter and mild spring, conditions have been favourable for the flowering of olive trees olive trees . Water reserves in Spain have recovered significantly, which has mainly benefited non-irrigated orchards. In the Sierra de Segura region, olive groves are not irrigated.

Recovery of olive oil production in Andalusia

Andalusia, the largest producer of extra virgin olive oil olive oil in Spain, expects a harvest of around 1.1 million tons of olive oil. This is a huge improvement compared to last year, especially in the provinces of Jaén and Córdoba growth is expected, which will yield 445,000 and 271,000 tons of olive oil respectively, which represents an increase of 116% and 79% compared to the 2023/2024 harvest year.

The increase in production is attributed to a quiet period for the trees, better rainfall and less extreme weather conditions during key phases such as flowering.

However, the forecasts remain cautious, as extreme weather conditions at the end of the summer, such as hailstorms and heat waves, have somewhat slowed down production. The recovery is also being affected by the fact that the current stocks of extra virgin olive oil are becoming fairly depleted, and these stocks must first be replenished.

I have also personally experienced that the yield can differ per region. Where it has a positive outlook inland, it has remained very dry on the Costa Blanca near Alicante and our supplier Señorios de Relleu. They fear a similar harvest as last year, which was not very good. During my visit I myself saw many empty olive trees where no fruit has grown.

Impact on extra virgin olive oil prices

Although the prices for olive oil This year, they have fallen from their record highs earlier in 2024, but they remain significantly higher than usual. The price of extra virgin olive oil in Spain is currently around €6.73 per kilogram, which is 25% lower than the peak in January 2024.

Farmers and producers hope that prices will stabilize so that consumers who have switched from extra virgin olive oil to lower quality olive oil or sunflower oil because of high prices will return to extra virgin olive oil.

Source: ycharts.com (updated: November 15, 2024)

My expectation is that prices will only really drop at the end of autumn 2024 and I hope that in the first quarter the prices of extra virgin olive oil in the Netherlands will drop again to more favourable prices.

Prospects for the future

While this year’s crop will remain below historical peaks, it will provide the industry with much-needed relief after a difficult few years. With improved oil availability and a more favorable price trend, both producers and consumers will benefit from these developments.

All in all, the future looks brighter for Spain’s olive oil sector, which is finally on the verge of recovery after years of drought and low yields.

Update November 15:

After the first month of the new olive harvest, the yield in the countries around the Mediterranean Sea is disappointing. In both Italy and Greece, the first harvest yields have been very disappointing. According to the Olive Oil Times, in Greece, the olives are even left hanging and growing longer, so that the olive oil yield will be higher.

It will also not have escaped anyone's attention that Spain has been hit hard by the enormous rainfall and flooding in the past month. Olive groves in Valencia have been severely affected. However, these are small olive groves compared to the interior of Andalusia, where approximately 60% of all olive oil comes from. The expectations from the largest regions are still positive.

The positive news from Spain is important for the European market, because Spain is the largest olive oil producing country in Europe and will therefore have a major influence on the olive oil price.

Sources:

• Olive Oil Times: https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/filippo-berio-exec-forecasts-production-rebound-falling-prices/134464
• Olive Oil Times: https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/officials-in-spain-optimistic-ahead-of-harvest-as-prices-remain-elevated/134609
• Juan Vilar
• Olive Oil Times: https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/harvest-in-greece-runs-into-early-problems/135031
• Olive Oil Times: https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/italian-growers-face-disappointing-yields/135271
• Agridata Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development