October has just arrived, and we're on the eve of the new olive harvest in Spain for the 2025/2026 season. Spain is by far the largest producer of extra virgin olive oil and largely determines global prices. The 2025/26 olive harvest received early attention this year because previous years were extreme: first, a disastrous drought (2022/23), then a surprising recovery (2024/25). Will 2025/2026 be another bumper year like last year? Will the taste and quality of extra virgin olive oil be the same?
The rainy spring gave hope
In April 2025, the omens were favorable. I was on vacation in the provinces of Seville and Cadiz; it had rained profusely, the temperatures were mild, and the olive trees were in full blossom. With my own eyes, I saw how normally dry ground in April was covered with grass and the flora in full bloom. Even a taxi driver told me he'd never seen it so green before.
Some producers even dreamed of a record harvest. Experts tempered their optimism: olive trees often produce one large harvest and one smaller one, so the spectacular 2024/25 production could well be followed by a quiet harvest.
Spain was also being looked at internationally. While the US Department of Agriculture predicted a decline in global production of about ten percent, the expectation for Spain, thanks to the rain and flowering, was still around 1.6 million tons.
Heat and drought in the summer threw a spanner in the works
That hope was short-lived. The summer of 2025 was dry and hot. This significantly reduced olive yields and undermined the optimistic forecasts. Market reports indicated that supplies from the previous harvest were already limited and of poor quality. At international meetings, experts spoke of a combined volume of 2.65 million tons for the six largest producing countries—considerably less than a year earlier. In Spain, expectations dropped to around 1.5 million tons. Farmers in Jaén, the province where almost half of Spain's oil comes from, even feared a twenty percent loss if no rain fell in September and October.
My cousin told me the same story. This year, expectations are a bit lower than last year, but it won't be a bad year and is expected to be above average compared to previous years.
The official figures
In early October, the Andalusian regional government presented the official harvest forecast. Andalusia produces three-quarters of Spain's olive oil; what happens there determines the national balance. The AFORO forecasts 1.08 million tons of oil for the 2025/26 campaign, a slight decrease (-5.5%) compared to last year but almost 20% above the five-year average. The rainy spring helped the trees, but the hot summer hampered fruit growth.
The province of Jaén remains the leader with an estimate of 475,000 tons (-15% compared to last year), followed by Cordoba with 269,000 tons (-7.5%). Other provinces, such as Seville and Malaga, are partially compensating for this with significant growth. The official forecast for all of Spain is therefore around 1.44 million tons .
What does this mean for the consumer?
Although production remains at a decent level, there are few reserves. The market started the summer with low stocks, and the drought is creating uncertainty. Producers warn that prices will remain high unless there is a refreshing rain; a wet autumn could alleviate the pressure, but if the drought continues, olives will remain small and the harvest will start later.
International influences are also a factor. The United States imposed import tariffs in April 2025, leading to stockpiling and price volatility. Such trade measures can cause unexpected fluctuations, especially in a market dominated by Spain.
Castle
The story of the 2025/26 olive oil harvest is one of hope, setbacks, and ultimately a moderate outcome. After a wet and promising spring, the hot summer months spoiled the fun, but the final forecast offers some peace of mind: production is above average, though a glut is not in sight. Anyone buying olive oil in the coming months should expect high prices and be aware that the weather will play a decisive role right up to the last minute.
Sources :
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Food & Wines from Spain – “Olive Oil Harvest: A Return to Normal Matched with Top Quality” (Spring 2025)
Link: foodswinesfromspain.com -
Olive Oil Times – Article on USDA Estimate and Optimism Among Spanish Producers (May 2025)
Link: oliveoiltimes.com -
Wikifarmer – Olive Oil Market Digest – Week 26 (June 27, 2025)
Link: wikifarmer.com -
Certified Origins – Olive Oil Market Report (September 2025)
Link: certifiedorigins.com -
Olive Oil Times – “Olive Oil Production in Leading Countries Forecast to Fall to 2.65 Million Tons” (September 13, 2025)
Link: oliveoiltimes.com -
Wikifarmer – Olive Oil Prices & Market Digest – Week 38 (end of September 2025)
Link: wikifarmer.com -
Junta de Andalucía – Official news item “Andalucía presenta el aforo del olivar…” (October 2, 2025)
Link: juntadeandalucia.es -
Official aforo report “Estimación Aceite y Aceituna de Mesa 2025-26” (pdf)
Link: juntadeandalucia.es – PDF -
Asaja Córdoba – Message about the aforo for the province of Córdoba (October 2, 2025)
Link: asajacordoba.es -
Lacontradejaén – “La producción de aceite descenderá un 5.5%” (October 2, 2025)
Link: lacontradejaen.eldiario.es
